Methodology & sources

Who we are

KE·PULSE is an independent tracker of Kenya's 2027 presidential race. We are not affiliated with any candidate, political party or the IEBC, and we do not accept payment to change a number.

Where the numbers come from

• Polls. Poll shares are taken from published national polls by named pollsters (for example TIFA Research and Infotrak). Collection is AI-assisted: a search model reads published reports and returns the figures, which are validated for plausibility before they are shown. Always check the pollster's own publication for the authoritative number.
• Win probability. An AI-assisted estimate that combines the latest polls, coalition arithmetic and news coverage. It is not a statistical forecast and not a betting market.
• Media tone. The share of recent headlines about a candidate that read positive, neutral or negative. It measures how coverage reads, not how voters feel. Small samples are shrunk toward the previous value and labelled "low data".
• Headlines. Collected automatically every two hours from Google News and Kenyan outlets' public RSS feeds. We store only the headline, outlet, link and time, and always link to the publisher.
• Regional map. Regional leads are estimated from poll breakdowns and regional coverage. Counties in a region share the regional estimate.
• Key dates. Based on the IEBC calendar. Dates change with official notices.

How often it updates

Headlines and media tone: about every two hours. Polls, win probability, analysis and candidate profiles: twice a week. Economy, turnout and the election calendar: monthly. Every page shows when it was last updated.

Known limits

Polls months before an election are snapshots. Sample sizes and methods differ between pollsters. AI-assisted data can contain mistakes, which is why we validate it, label estimates and link sources. If you spot an error, tell us and we will correct it and note the change.