Kenya 2027 presidential polls
William Ruto leads the latest poll (Infotrak July 2026) on 32%, ahead of Kalonzo Musyoka on 13%. No candidate is near the 50% + 1 needed to win in round one, so a runoff is the likely outcome.
Latest poll by candidate
Bars show the most recent poll share. Undecided voters are not shown.
| Candidate | Party | Latest poll | Win probability* |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Ruto | UDA / Broad-Based Coalition | 32% | 40% |
| Kalonzo Musyoka | Wiper | 13% | 22% |
| Fred Matiangi | Jubilee | 12% | 18% |
| Edwin Sifuna | ODM / Kenya Moja Alliance | 12% | 12% |
| Rigathi Gachagua | DCP | 4% | 5% |
*Win probability is an AI-assisted estimate, not a poll result. How we calculate it.
Poll history
Every poll we have recorded, newest first. Blank cells mean the pollster did not report a number for that candidate.
| Poll | Date | Ruto | Kalonzo | Matiangi | Sifuna | Gachagua |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infotrak July 2026 | 13 Jul 2026 | 32% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 4% |
| TIFA Research May 2026 (partial) | May 2026 | – | – | 14% | 10% | – |
Questions
Who is leading the 2027 Kenya presidential polls?
William Ruto leads the latest poll (Infotrak July 2026) on 32%, ahead of Kalonzo Musyoka on 13%. No candidate is near the 50% + 1 needed to win in round one, so a runoff is the likely outcome.
Which organisations publish Kenyan opinion polls?
Regular Kenyan pollsters include TIFA Research, Infotrak, Mizani Africa and Politrack Africa. Each uses its own sample size and method, so compare the margin of error and fieldwork dates before comparing headline numbers.
What is the win probability on this site?
It is an AI-assisted estimate that combines published polls, coalition arithmetic and news coverage. It is not a statistical forecast and it is not a betting market. The poll numbers themselves come from the named pollster.
Why do polls differ?
Pollsters use different questions, sample sizes, sampling methods and dates. Undecided and "refused to answer" voters are also treated differently, which can move a candidate by several points.